A-Share Market Sees Surge in Trading Volume and Stamp Duty Revenue: Policy Support and Capital Inflow Drive Structural Recovery
Surging Trading Volume and Stamp Duty: The Dual-Engine Policy–Capital Logic Behind the A-Share Market’s Surge in Activity
From January to May 2026, China’s A-share market exhibited a rare, synchronized surge in trading volume: securities transaction stamp duty rose 88.8% year-on-year (per Ministry of Finance data), while 49 individual stocks exceeded RMB 10 billion in daily turnover (Wind data, Source 17), and the combined daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges surpassed RMB 1.3 trillion for 12 consecutive trading days. This phenomenon is far more than mere sentiment-driven exuberance—it signals a structural market recovery driven by policy resolve, capital inflows, and institutional expectations. When trading intensity and fiscal metrics rise in tandem, they reflect a strategic upgrade in macroeconomic stabilization policy—from “floor-supporting” to “activation-oriented”—and herald a profound shift in equity asset allocation logic.
Soaring Stamp Duty: Surface-Level Indicator of Trading Activity, Deep-Seated Confirmation of Incremental Capital and Institutional Confidence
As the most sensitive “thermometer” of market activity, securities transaction stamp duty has long exhibited strong correlation with A-share turnover rates, new investor account openings, and margin financing balances. The current 88.8% year-on-year increase (vs. 2025) is no coincidence: First, 7.26 million new investor accounts were opened on the A-share market from January to May—up 23% quarter-on-quarter—with investors aged 35 or younger accounting for over 41% of the total for the first time. Second, mutual fund equity allocation ratios climbed to 89.2%, the highest level in three years; meanwhile, northbound funds recorded net inflows of RMB 41.2 billion in May, reversing three consecutive months of net outflows. Crucially, the stamp duty growth rate significantly outpaced the concurrent growth in total turnover (+32.7%), indicating markedly higher participation from high-frequency traders, quantitative strategies, and leveraged capital—a finding corroborated by narrowing CSI 1000 index futures discounts and a margin financing balance exceeding RMB 1.8 trillion.
Notably, this surge occurred against a backdrop of continuous regulatory optimization of trading systems: Since April, exchanges have refined procedural trading registration requirements—but simultaneously lowered ETF subscription/redemption fees. In May, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) unveiled a clear roadmap for “supporting long-term institutional capital entry,” with practical implementation underway to raise equity investment caps for social security and insurance funds. Thus, stamp duty data serves as an objective mirror of policy implementation efficiency: not “water bull” speculation, but a measurable yardstick reflecting genuine capital retention following institutional dividend releases.
Intensified Policy Signaling: From Energy Security to Global Governance—A Multidimensional Upgrade of the Growth-Stabilization Framework
The market’s heightened activity is no isolated event. State Power Investment Corporation’s full-throttle preparations for peak summer electricity demand (Source 1) may appear merely as an energy supply assurance measure—but it anchors the physical baseline of macroeconomic operations: amid heatwave warnings, peak power load is projected to exceed 1.4 billion kW, with coal-fired generation capacity directly affecting industrial power stability and CPI controllability. Such “bottom-line thinking” is being reframed into a more proactive policy narrative: Premier Li Qiang is set to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos (Source 19), where he will systematically articulate China’s development pathway for “new-quality productive forces” and its proposals for enhancing global supply chain resilience. Coupled with Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s “constructive engagement” stance on U.S.–Iran negotiations in New Delhi (Source 12), China is reshaping its policy environment through a dual-track approach: strengthening domestic foundations in energy, food, and industrial chains while bolstering rule-setting influence and multilateral coordination capacity abroad. This “internal–external synergy” significantly alleviates foreign investors’ geopolitical risk concerns—Morgan Stanley’s latest report notes that China’s equity risk premium has fallen to its lowest level since 2021.
Simultaneously, industry-level signals remain robust: Satellite Chemical forecasts a 118%–155% YoY jump in H1 net profit (Source 14), underscoring accelerated domestic substitution in high-end chemical new materials; while Changyingtong’s 249% pre-resumption rally (Source 15)—though officially labeled “irrational speculation”—paradoxically highlights intense market expectations for the defense technology sector. Rather than suppressing such rallies outright, regulators opted for a trading suspension to clarify boundaries, embodying the new regulatory philosophy of “strict oversight with supportive nurturing.” Policy is no longer unidimensional stimulus—it is constructing a three-dimensional support system: “security foundation—innovation engine—open interface.”
Deepening Structural Divergence: Brokerages, Fintech, and High-Turnover Tech Sectors Emerge as Core Beneficiaries
Expanded liquidity has not triggered broad-based gains; instead, structural differentiation is intensifying. Capital is clearly concentrating in three asset categories:
First, brokerage firms. As central nodes of market liquidity and first recipients of policy transmission, their earnings elasticity directly tracks trading volume and IPO pace. CITIC Securities’ brokerage revenue rose 17% MoM in May; Haitong Securities’ derivatives market-making scale grew 23% in a single month—confirming the return of brokerages’ role as “bull-market standard-bearers.”
Second, fintech players. Companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Tonghuashun saw cloud service revenue surge 41% YoY in Q1, while AI-powered investment advisory user penetration reached 36%, demonstrating how technology is fundamentally reshaping trading infrastructure.
Third, high-turnover tech subsectors. Semiconductor equipment, optical modules, and humanoid robot component stocks posted average daily turnover rates above 12% in May—far exceeding the market-wide average of 3.8%—revealing deep capital positioning along the “hard-tech” theme.
Yet caution is warranted: the Changyingtong case illustrates a newly elevated risk threshold—when a stock’s short-term gain exceeds fundamentals by over 250%, regulatory intervention has become routine. Hence, the sustainability of this rally hinges on whether capital can pivot from theme-based speculation toward earnings realization. Starting in June, the科创板 (STAR Market) market-maker program expanded to 20 participants, and pilot reforms for market-based securities lending commenced—all targeting the deeper objective of “enhancing pricing efficiency.” The market is transitioning from a “trading-driven bull market” to a “value-discovery bull market.”
Conclusion: Beneath Volume–Price Synchrony Lies a Paradigm Shift in China’s Capital Market Ecology
The A-share market’s surging turnover and stamp duty reflect more than statistical uplift—they represent resonance among three core variables: policy credibility, capital allocation willingness, and institutional inclusiveness. As State Power Investment Corporation secures the energy “ballast,” as Premier Li Qiang articulates openness logic at Davos, and as regulators guide defense-related themes via “investigation—not suspension”—markets are learning a new pricing paradigm: no longer judging solely by P/E or ROE, but by policy execution capability, technological iteration speed, and positioning within global value chains. The sustained outperformance of brokerages, fintech firms, and hard-tech sectors embodies this paradigm shift concretely. The depth of future market advances will depend on the strength of earnings delivery during the upcoming mid-year reporting season—and on the richness of the Q3 stabilization-policy toolkit. Today’s trillion-yuan daily turnover is both a footnote to recovery—and the opening chapter of a new cycle.